Swine flu is a nasty disease, but no nastier than other strains of influenza. True, it has killed hundreds of people in Mexico; but even there, other variants of 'flu virus have been far more lethal. Why, then, the urgent need to inoculate the entire British population? Perhaps I'm being overly cynical, but I can't help wondering whether we're being pushed into a wrong-headed course of action by the health scare industry. We're told that Tamiflu needs to be taken at once, without a moment's delay - meaning that anyone with a sniffle is likely to start glugging the stuff. We're also told that the virus may mutate, meaning - conveniently - that we'll soon need a new variety of medicine. In any case, these flu vaccines have short shelf lives. Good news for the drug manufacturers and their lobbyists; bad news for the taxpayer. Ministers must suspect that the danger is being exaggerated. Yet they would rather spend gazillions than run the slightest risk of being accused of not having done enough. And, needless to say, there isn't a medical advisory body in the world that will say: Actually, minister, considering everything in the round, the danger posed by this virus is minor, and we recommend the disbandment of this panel". You may think I am being unconscionably flippant. But back in April, when newspapers were filling their pages with science fiction scenarios of a deadly epidemic, I suggested that, taking everything together, we weren't going to die of swine flu. Who has the better track record so far: the Big Pharma doom mongers, or this blog?

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